Justin Herbert is once again at the centre of every NFL conversation—not just because of his stats, but because of the expectations that follow them. Drafted sixth overall in 2020, Herbert has built a reputation as one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league. But with that hype comes scrutiny, and now more than ever, the question isn’t about potential. It’s about delivery.
Herbert has earned praise for his poise under pressure, sharp football IQ, and elite arm strength. But he’s also been criticised for inconsistency, conservative play calling, and the playoff drought that keeps dogging the Chargers.
With the 2025 season fast approaching, all eyes are on him—and the noise isn’t just coming from fans. Analysts, coaches, and betting markets are weighing in too.
The Stats Say One Thing, The Critics Say Another
Statistically, Herbert has already achieved plenty. He has the most passing yards by a quarterback in his first 4 seasons, with 17,223 yards. He also holds the single-season rookie touchdown record. Numbers like that don’t come easy.
Still, some think the hype is running ahead of the results. ESPN recently released its 2025 projections and ranked Herbert surprisingly low, placing him outside of the top five QBs. This stirred debate about whether he was being unfairly judged based on team performance rather than individual output.
Pro Football Focus also made headlines when it ranked Herbert just outside of its elite QB tier. Analysts cited his clean mechanics and accuracy, but flagged the Chargers’ inability to turn big stats into wins.
A Strong Arm in a System That Needs Fixing
It’s clear Herbert isn’t the problem. If anything, he’s the one keeping the Chargers competitive. Last season, he posted over 4,000 passing yards and 23 touchdowns, despite injuries across the offensive line and key losses on defence.
New head coach Jim Harbaugh has taken notice. Since his arrival, Harbaugh has emphasised building around Herbert more effectively. That means creating a more consistent run game, improving red zone efficiency, and taking pressure off Herbert to do everything himself.
The goal is balance. And with a more structured offence, the expectation is that Herbert will elevate his play from impressive to undeniable.
Why Bettors Are Locking In Early
Even with the mixed rankings and playoff concerns, Herbert continues to generate interest in betting circles. That’s because few quarterbacks can match his upside. From passing yards to touchdown totals, his numbers are high-ceiling plays.
For those tracking the market on Justin Herbert player props, the value lies in the volume. Herbert’s game is built around throwing the ball. If the Chargers sort out their coaching and stay healthy, his stats could take a serious jump.
These prop markets reflect the same split fans see in commentary: optimism in talent mixed with a healthy dose of cautious realism due to the team’s track record.
Harbaugh’s Arrival Changes the Stakes
Herbert might be a four-year veteran, but this season feels like a new start. Harbaugh brings credibility, structure, and a reputation for developing quarterbacks. He publicly backed Herbert and acknowledged the team’s need to support him better.
That includes:
- A stronger offensive line,
- Consistent play-calling,
- Smarter fourth-down decisions,
- Reliable wide receiver depth.
It also includes giving Herbert more control at the line of scrimmage. Trusting him to read defences and adjust plays on the fly could unlock the next level of his game.
For the Chargers, it’s now or never. With Herbert in his prime, they need to make the most of the window.
The Perception Gap
What’s unusual about Herbert is how split the NFL world is on him. Teammates and coaches talk about his work ethic, leadership, and unshakable calm. Analysts praise his touch, deep ball accuracy, and clutch performances. Yet the media and fanbase still hesitate to crown him.
Maybe it’s because he hasn’t had that one signature playoff win. Maybe it’s because he hasn’t had a consistent head coach. Or maybe the bar has simply been raised too high.
Still, few quarterbacks have done more with less. And when you watch him play, it’s hard not to think he’s just getting started.
Looking Ahead
With the 2025 season on the horizon, Herbert’s position is clear: He’s on the cusp of greatness. But he needs help to cross that line. A stronger system, a healthier roster, and fewer breakdowns late in games will all make a difference.
He’s already proven he can light up the stat sheet. Now it’s about proving he can lead his team to a deep postseason run. If that happens, no one will question whether he belongs in the league’s top tier.
Until then, the discussion continues. But one thing’s certain: everyone’s watching, and no quarterback has more on the line this year than Justin Herbert.